NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, provides valuable winter weather predictions that help individuals, businesses, and communities prepare for the upcoming season. These predictions are based on extensive analysis of various atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including but not limited to sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure patterns, and historical climate data.
NOAA’s winter weather predictions offer insights into temperature and precipitation patterns across different regions of the United States. By utilizing advanced modeling techniques and considering factors such as El Niño/La Niña events and long-term climate trends, NOAA aims to provide reliable and accurate forecasts.
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These predictions are crucial for numerous sectors, including agriculture, transportation, energy, and emergency management. Farmers rely on NOAA’s forecasts to make informed decisions about crop selection and planting schedules. Transportation agencies use the predictions to plan for potential disruptions caused by snowstorms, ice, or extreme cold. Energy providers use the information to anticipate demand and ensure a stable supply of resources. Additionally, emergency management agencies use these predictions to prepare for potential severe weather events and mitigate their impact on communities.
NOAA’s winter weather predictions are continuously updated and refined as new data becomes available. While they offer valuable guidance, it is essential to remember that weather can be unpredictable, and local variations can occur. It is advisable to regularly monitor updated forecasts and heed the advice of local meteorologists for the most accurate and localized information.
Overall, NOAA’s winter weather predictions play a crucial role in helping individuals and communities make informed decisions, enhance preparedness efforts, and minimize the potential risks associated with winter weather hazards.
NOAA has released a forecast/prediction for winter weather in 2023–2024.
The climatic normals used in the outlook are based on conditions observed between 1991 and 2020. This approach follows the convention of the World Meteorological Organization, which recommends using the most recent three complete decades as the reference period for climatic data. By utilizing these updated normals, the probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation are better able to capture shorter-term climatic anomalies compared to forecasts based on older normals.
PRECIPITATION: During November December January 2023 to January February March 2024, the outlooks largely favor above-normal precipitation across the southern tier and below-normal precipitation across the northern tier of the CONUS. That pattern is largely aligned with ENSO impacts and model guidance. From FMA 2024 through ASO 2024, the outlooks primarily reflect the consolidation of available tools, which largely follows trends and ENSO impacts.
Temperature: Beginning in November December January 2023-24 through January February March 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with an increasing coverage of equal chance across California, the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley. During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East based on the statistical consolidation.