6-10 precipitation map shows low precipitation probability for Tahoe

They are talking about a small snow storm on Tuesday. They were talking about it being a decent snow maker, but now, the storm is forecasted to hit a ridge of high pressure, split apart, and weaken (sound familiar?). The GFS model is showing 3-6 inches in the Tahoe basin for Tuesday while the European model shows only a few clouds. The mean between the two is likely which is another 1/32” – 1/8” storm total (sound familiar?).

Where does this all leave us? Well, this leaves us looking at no significant new snow until at least past the middle of the month.

“There is confidence a storm will approach the coast, there is just not confidence in how well it will hold together and how much precip we will see. Either way it doesn’t look like more than a quick shot of several inches if the storm is able to hold together.” – TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com

RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STRONG JET IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE A SPLIT FLOW INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA NEXT WEEK. THIS RAISES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURVIVING THE SPLIT FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST. – noaa.gov

precipitation map for lake tahoe — Light precipitation for Tahoe

There is the chance of another storm next Saturday, the 11th, but this storm is likely going to split apart as well.

NEXT SPLITTING SYSTEM MAY REACH THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR AND ANY SYSTEM REACHING THE SIERRA WILL BE WEAK. – noaa.gov

And then? Then, the pattern just looks like crap for Tahoe.

BEYOND THIS WEEK, MODELS HOLD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH PRESIDENTS DAY WEEKEND. CERTAINLY NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE SIERRA. – noaa.gov

The translation for above quote is really that no significant new snow will come to Tahoe past the 20th of February (presidents day weekend)! FML. That is basically saying that all of February will be dry. Hope noaa is wrong on this one.

If you’ve been hanging on and hoping that the season turns around and we end up having an average snowfall year, it may be time to start letting go…

“I think I have mentioned this before but the past 2 seasons were only the 3rd time we had back to back seasons with over 500 inches on Donner Summit in the past 100 years. The only time we ever had three years in a row was back in the 1890′s when we had 5 years in a row.” – TahoeWeatherForecast.com