Overview: How the ski season will be effected by El Nino conditions this winter. :
The 2023 / 2024. ski season will be impacted by El Niño conditions. How exactly no one knows but from previous El Niño's meteorologist can make a guess.
The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasts with absolute certainty that El Niño will influence the early winter weather. With a more than 90% likelihood of extending into spring, it’s time to understand what this could mean for your time on the slopes.
El Niño often splits the U.S. in two, weather-wise, but the exact dividing line shifts annually. Those planning to hit the southern slopes, including areas in California, may rejoice in the possibility of more moisture. However, don’t get your snow boots on just yet — the extra precipitation doesn’t always mean snow since it may not be cold enough.
Conversely, regions like the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley often experience drier and warmer conditions during an El Niño winter. If you’re dreaming of powder days in the northern Rockies or New England, you might want to temper expectations, as these areas generally see reduced snowfall during El Niño years.
That said, the mountainous areas of the West, such as California’s Sierra Nevada and the southern Rockies, might get an extra helping of snow. A color-coded NOAA Climate.gov map, with blue indicating more average snowfall and brown less, illustrates these trends clearly.
For those hoping for heavy snowfall, an intense El Niño, which is highly probable this season, could mix things up. More snow could grace the higher altitudes of Northern California and the southern regions of the Appalachians. Yet, this also means the usual snowy states like Oregon, Washington, and parts of the Northeast might experience scantier snowfall.
But before you consider a season without snow, remember that El Niño only tilts the odds — it doesn’t seal the deal. Climate change also plays its part, generally resulting in less snowy winters. Still, the unpredictability of weather can bring surprises like a sudden snowstorm, even in an El Niño phase.
With the Climate Prediction Center suggesting a 75% to 85% chance of a “strong” El Niño effect, and a 30% possibility of it being among the most intense on record, it’s a winter of watchful anticipation for snow enthusiasts. Keep your gear ready; the season could still bring some snowy surprises!