Meteorologist Chris Tomer gives us the latest weather update for 12//18/2023.

Chris Tomer is a renowned meteorologist and outdoor enthusiast, widely respected for his expertise in weather forecasting and mountain meteorology. With a passion for the great outdoors, Tomer combines his meteorological knowledge with a love for adventure sports, providing invaluable insights for those seeking to navigate the weather’s impact on outdoor activities.

Post Via Powderchasers

The incoming storm will be a complete game changer for many ski areas in the PNW and north/central Rockies. Epic amounts of moisture through Monday. The red flags for chasing are rapidly warming temps in the PNW and upside-down snow in the Rockies with AVY concerns. Ski Areas will be deep! Game On! This is what we have been waiting for. 

If ski resorts were open currently, we would be chasing immediately to the PNW for deepness early this weekend followed by a chase back to the Rockies (ID, WY, UT) for Sunday. Our chase would keep us pondering pow in either Wyoming or Utah for Sunday morning and perhaps Colorado for late Sunday to Monday. We would easily be able to score 60-70 inches total by chasing 3 States from the PNW to the Rockies. 

Support our gold sponsor Tire Rack for the latest deals on snow tires and wheel packages for our chases. Discount Tire owns Tire Rack so you can ship and install locally. 

Atmospheric River funnels several rounds of moisture for the west, pumps out 6 inches of moisture for the PNW, and decays as it moves east over the Rockies. This system has associated rounds of cold fronts mixing with the warm moist AR. The timing of the cold pockets and warmer air will make a big difference in snow totals.  Strong winds and warming will increase avalanche danger significantly in the backcountry, especially by Sunday. 

PNW

Very cold temps will keep snow levels low for the Pacific Northwest Friday/Saturday (3,000 feet) with widespread snow totals in the 12-20 inch range by Saturday morning. Some areas closer to Mt Rainier (Southern Cascades) extending south to northern Oregon could see 2- 3 feet primarily at the peaks. This storm has W, NW flow that often can pump out big totals for a wide area of the Cascades (Aside from the interior). we would put a bit more emphasis on bigger totals from Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Summit, and south to Crystal, White Pass, and areas of Oregon. The Good: Significant snow totals at the bases through Saturday afternoon. The Bad: Strong winds will impact upper lifts. Warming Saturday through Sunday with rising snow levels. The warm front will spread into Oregon early Saturday with denser snow and a possible change to rain below 3500 feet. In Washington, the warm front impacts southern areas after daybreak while temps further north stay a bit cooler. Rain is likely from late Saturday night to Sunday in many areas of the PNW with some brief colder air pockets moving back late this weekend, especially near Mt Baker. Bottom Line: Great base building storm for the PNW and resorts will be opening with solid numbers. Bring your Gortex late Saturday or Sunday. What, if any resorts are open? 

Below: Snowfall totals through Saturday morning. Higher totals might be confined to the summits with warmer air noted, especially in Oregon later Friday night or Saturday morning. Many big winners with this storm with decent base-level snow.

Rockies 

The strong AR from the PNW will advance into the Rockies on Friday. A separate storm will be underway in Colorado that kicks light or moderate totals favoring the San Juan Range from Wolf Creek, CB to Aspen (2-6 inches fresh for Friday turns). “Not a big event, but with colder temps could sneak out some surprises”

There are 3 waves of energy that impact the Tetons, Panhandle, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. On Friday AM snow will be falling at most of western Idaho, Wasatch, and the Teton resorts. .25-.40 inches of moisture with colder temps could land 5-11 inches of high-quality pow for many areas by late Friday  (Last chair).

The 2nd fetch of moisture impacts these regions again on Saturday and pushes a bit further north into the Panhandle of Idaho and northern Montana, as well as decent totals for the Wasatch and Tetons (Colorado is a wildcard with moderate snow noted and decaying moisture). Wave 3 hits the Rockies on Sunday. 

While not getting into details on the timing of each wave being 4-5 days out we will highlight a few deep spots.

Below: Total snowfall through Monday morning for the west. These totals might exceed the map at 10:1 (10 inches for 1 inch of water), especially the Rockies who will see cold temps initially with an average of 50% more snow (15:1 or higher snow ratios initially falling to 10:1 late). Timing: The northern Rockies from Idaho/Wyoming and Utah score Friday AM-Saturday AM and again Sunday -AM/PM (3 events peaking at daybreak each day). Averages of 7-11 inches per wave. There will be short-lived breaks between each wave. High winds and warming are likely with waves 2 and 3. Saturday may stay cold in the Rockies with general warming late Saturday and Sunday with the final wave (slightly denser snow). 

The Wasatch storm totals exceed 25-35 inches (Northern regions near Ogden (Snowbasin, Powmow, and Logan (Beaver Mountain).  Park City is likely going to hit 20 inches.The Tetons will likely be in the 14-20 inch range, perhaps higher amounts at the summits by Monday (Slow ramp up with each wave). Less snow is forecasted for the southern mountains. Our longest running sponsor, Beaver Mountain will likely open after this storm! 

Colorado scores a weak storm Friday in the central or southern mountains followed by moderate snow favoring the northern and central areas Saturday/Sunday.

Peak snowfall in Colorado comes from PM Sunday to Monday with 5-11 additional inches likely from Steamboat (Higher totals) extending south to Aspen, and most of the I-70 corridor (Western areas are a bit favored with Summit and Eagle in the card deck). Some areas in Colorado might score storm totals in the 10-18 inch range, especially western I-70 (Beaver Creek) perhaps Vail Pass, and higher confidence for Steamboat or even Snowmass (Combined totals from Friday to Monday).

Below: 10K foot temps rising as a cold front slowly decays first in the PNW Saturday (South to north) bringing rain to most ski areas later Saturday and Sunday. In the Rockies temps slowly rise later Saturday to Sunday increasing density. The map is from Friday evening ending Sunday morning. 

Below: U of U models using the GFS model depicting nearly 3 inches of liquid for the Cottonwoods. You can see 3 waves from Friday AM, Saturday, and again on Sunday. Each wave is progressively stronger with snow ratios decreasing with warming late Saturday. Snowfall totals could exceed 30 inches. Some models show higher totals near Ogden and Logan. 

Bottom line: Great base-building storm for many areas of the west including the PNW. Cold to warm. Increasing winds and avalanche danger (Don’t venture into the Backcountry without the proper skills. Equipment alone does not mean you are safe). Some areas will grab 3 feet of snow. The storm is spread out over 3 waves with each being a bit stronger as you head into Saturday-Monday. If it were mid-winter we would be doing a 3 State chase. Models can still change this far out!

ANNOUNCEMENT: Please join our powder concierge program to support powderchasers. This program provides 1:1 forecasting, chase locations, and custom trip planning to get you in the deepest snow with each storm. You can also donate on our website or purchase some swag to support us. This keeps the free forecasts going. Any Donations of $50 or more get you free swag (Shirts and stickers).

“The anticipation is almost as good as game day” “The Sierra unfortunately is getting grazed” 

You can follow my Instagram feed at @powderchasersteve for world travel and powder. 

Stay safe everyone. 

Powderchaser Steve 

Image Credits: Powderchasers

After weeks of little snowfall, will the Western United States finally see some significant snowfall this weekend? After a dry start to the ski season, some states will see some snow this weekend, while Utah and Colorado are question marks.

The official forecast from Powderchasers is below.

Powder Alert CA, OR, UT (Boom Or Bust) and Colorado Mystery.

Summary:

This is not an easy forecast with so many variables and even short-term model differences. We are feeling good about a decent event for the Sierra (Southern areas are favored), and Oregon with a bit of skepticism for Washington. Northern Utah could boom big time but also kinda bust. Colorado and New Mexico next. 

ANNOUNCEMENT: Please join our concierge program to support powderchasers. This program provides 1:1 forecasting, chase locations, and custom trip planning to get you in the deepest snow of the season. You can also donate on our website or purchase some swag to support us. 

Below: Current Moisture (Percent of average) SWE (If you melted the snow) is very gloomy for many areas aside from the PNW. The PNW water totals have mainly been at the peaks or above the elevation of many ski areas (Water). The PNW and Canada really highlight here as the wetter areas thus far this season. Areas in the southern Rockies are sitting near 0% in some cases. This is about to change, but it will take several storms to put a real dent in these numbers.

Sierra Pow:

In the past few days, we have increased the water totals for the Sierra. The models agree that the heaviest moisture will occur after midnight Friday through Saturday evening. This storm is warm with snow levels around 8,000 feet initially decreasing significantly to lake level by Sunday morning as moisture weans. The models are advertising 8-11 inches of snow for the Sierra Crest (Western side of the lake above 8,000 feet). There are still differences in pinpointing the deepest snow with some emphasis on areas from Kirkwood and south. It is likely that southern areas including Mammoth or June end up with the highest totals. Bottom line: Decent moisture that starts out warm and finishes cold. Upper elevations will see decent snow totals perhaps along the entire Sierra Crest. Lowland snow is likely late Saturday night or early Sunday as temps lower significantly (Light snow for the passes and bases). 

Below: The American model is optimistic for a widespread event for the majority of the Sierra Crest in California including most resorts in the core of the Tahoe Basin (Widespread totals of 6-11 inches above 8,000 feet). The snow level will be lower by Sunday morning bringing some light snow to the bases. Most of the snowfall from this storm will mainly impact mid and upper elevations until the tail end late Saturday or early Sunday. 

Below: The European Model pushes more moisture to the southern end of the lake and the southern Sierra (Mammoth or June Mountain).   Mammoth might benefit most due to the higher base elevations. Keep an eye out on Kirkwood. 

Below Very cold temps (14F) at 10K feet by Sunday morning as light moisture lingers over the Sierra. Some light snow will be falling at lake level but most of the moisture is east of the Sierra ranges. The highest totals will be above 8,000 feet until Sunday. 

Pacific Northwest Powder

The models have pushed the heaviest moisture south into Oregon where our highest confidence is currently. Short-term models still depict a decent event for areas near Stevens Pass and south into Crystal, but the majority of precipitation will likely land further south. NW and Westerly flow will favor the central and southern Cascades versus areas further north towards Baker.

Caveat: As of Friday morning the short-term models (Normally we have higher confidence here) and Canadian Deterministic are showing a widespread event in Washington and Oregon with the American, and Euro all pushing the moisture further south into Oregon. There is still some boom or bust potential. W-NW flow can be good for many areas of western Cascades favoring central and southern regions. The best guess is 5-11 inches into the Oregon Cascades (Timberline, Mt Hood, Bachelor) and 3-7 inches in areas of Washington from Stevens Pass and south. Chase south for the highest odds (Nothing is open). 

Utah Boom Or Bust? 

There are very large differences in the models that could land 4-9 inches for northern Utah or 11-20. The low ejecting from California may cut off in Nevada and drop south of the Wasatch. Or, it may progress east and crank out significant snow totals for most of northern Utah. The storm is coming in pieces with a warm SW flow initially on Saturday kicking off high-elevation snow showers for BCC, and areas north towards Ogden (Snow levels will be above 8500 feet).

By daybreak Sunday the winds veer NW with a cold front lowering snow levels to the bases of many resorts. However, the NW flow (Ideal wind direction for most of northern Utah) veers due northerly by mid-morning possibly shutting off the highest orographic (Terrain-based forcing of cold air and moisture) lift. This is a really tricky storm. The American model takes the coldest air south towards central Utah and southern zones (Eagle Point, Brian Head). This model also depicts a 4-8 inch event for areas of northern Utah above 8,000 feet. The European Model is more optimistic as well as some of the short-term models that all show much higher liquid totals. Some models show upwards of 20 inches for the Cottonwoods. We are a bit worried about northerly winds for the Wasatch (West, NW, SW is ideal for most areas). This might actually kick off a surprise towards Beaver (Logan area). 

Below: American GFS is pessimistic for northern Utah taking the coldest air and low south of the Wasatch to the central and southern regions. You can see the coldest temps on Sunday lingering over Nevada pushing into central Utah while areas north remain warmer. This will result in less snow for the northern Wasatch and better odds towards Eagle Point. This is the bust scenario for northern Utah and a boom for the southern areas. 

Below: The Canadian deterministic model and the short-term NAM both show a much colder solution with good orographic lift for the Wasatch Range and heavier snowfall, especially on Sunday with this front (The boom solution for northern Utah). This could result in significant snowfall for the Wasatch Front. 

Below: U. of U. ensembles show a wide range of solutions for the Cottonwoods between 10 and 30 inches. Since the American model is so pessimistic while others are a bit more optimistic we are trending the middle road at 12-16 inches for the Cottonwoods and 8-11 inches for the upper elevations for Park City peaking Sunday. The storm will be very warm initially with valley rain until the coldest air arrives Sunday. There is upside and downside bust potential with wide variances in the models. You can see the wide differences in the darker lines below (Low confidence). 

Below: Similar totals at Park City Summits being depicted as the Cottonwoods (U.of U). (10-20 inches). There is still bust potential depending on the model. 

Colorado/New Mexico

We are most optimistic for the far western corridor of Colorado towards Grand Junction (Powderhorn), and extending south towards Montrose, Telluride, Durango, and perhaps Wolf Creek. Peak snowfall will be from late Saturday (Warm) to Monday (Cooling trend late Sunday).   Winds are SW initially (Good for the southern mountains) and veer northerly by Sunday afternoon (Might be okay for the northern San Juans (Telluride). The storm will likely favor areas of the San Juan Range with lower-elevation rain and high-elevation snow. There are still many puzzles to connect and it’s possible that areas west near Grand Junction, or even areas outside the ranges of the ski areas score the most moisture. Keep an eye out for New Mexico. Areas east on I-70 will see lower snow totals. 

Below: Total moisture through Monday morning for Colorado favoring western areas of the State. The southern mountains might do best. 

What a long and tricky forecast. Our confidence will hopefully improve for the next post on Saturday. 

The extended brings high pressure back into the west next week with another storm possible after Thanksgiving. 

Follow my photo adventures, world travel, and passion for snow on Instagram @powderchasersteve 

Enjoy the snow everyone! Don’t forget to donate or join the concierge program. 

Powderchaser Steve 

It was a snowy weekend atop Mt. Washington, with the New Hampshire peak recording its first inch of snow for the 2023-24 season. By Monday afternoon, the Mt. Washington Observatory recorded 3.7 inches over the last 24 hours. As of around noon today, they’ve gotten almost two inches in the past day.

In response to these snowy scenes, one individual decided to get some sledding in. This U Local video submitted to WMUR by Jen Gleason shows a state employee sledding down a small slope near the summit of Mt. Washington. This looks fun, but they blew an opportunity to get the rock skis out. For that reason, I’m not mad, just disappointed.

Surprisingly, the snowfall this October has been below average compared to prior years. On Monday, Francis Tarasiewicz, who works for the Mount Washington Observatory, said the following about this depressing pattern:

“On average, October actually sees about 19 inches or so over the course of the month on any given year. We’re actually catching up a little bit. So in September, we had well below average snowfall. We only had half an inch for that month when we usually see our first inch or so in September.”

For a full breakdown of how the October snowfall is shaping up to prior seasons, check out WMUR’s video below.

Image/Video Credits: WMUR/Jean Gleason, Mount Washington Observatory, Mount Washington Auto Road

Has winter arrived early? After some snowstorms hit the Rockies over the past couple of weeks, more powder is on the way. If you want to shred this week though, you’ll probably want to bring out your rock skis. Powderchasers latest forecast is below.

Report Via Powderchasers.com:

Powder Alert- 5-10 inches of Snow, Snowliage, for the Northern Rockies.

By Steve Conroy

It has been a fantastic season for fall colors with areas in the 6500-7500 elevation currently peaking in the Rockies. Areas around Park City are full-on yellow. Aspen is peaking at lower elevations. Most of the upper peaks in the Cottonwoods, Maroon Bells, and the San Juan range are beyond peak.

Snow will be falling, heavy at times favoring the Northern Rockies, especially Utah and Colorado from Wednesday to Thursday.

Upwards of 10 inches are possible above 9,000 feet and 4-8 inches between 7-9K. Peak snowfall for the Rockies will be Tuesday for Montana/Idaho (Light to moderate amounts), increasing in intensity as you head south towards the Wasatch Range and most of northern Colorado. Wednesday/Thursday. This storm could be a photographer’s dream with snow/foliage abundant in many locations.

Below: A cold front enters the PNW early this week and drags over the Rockies Wednesday into Thursday (the Map is late Tuesday night to Thursday evening). You can see the PNW warms up by Thursday and most of the coldest air stays in the central and Northern Rockies midweek.

Below: Total moisture through midday Thursday is abundant for the PNW (1- 2 inches) with decent amounts (.5 to 1 inch) over central Montana, northern Utah, and especially northern Colorado (excess of 1 inch of water). Some higher-elevation light snowfall is likely in the Cascades earlier this week. 

Below: Vail Pass- Snow will be falling over Vail Pass Wednesday night and Thursday with moderate amounts likely at the summit. Steamboat and areas north could see higher amounts by late Thursday night with over an inch of moisture possible. 

Below: Total snowfall for Alta could exceed 10 inches at the summits (University of Utah models using only the American Model). 4-8 inches is likely at mid-elevations from Wednesday to Thursday. 

Below: Total snowfall through Thursday morning will favor northern Montana, the Wasatch Range in Utah, southern Wyoming areas along I-80, and much of north/central Colorado. An excess of 10 inches is possible above 9,000 feet for northern Utah and Colorado. 

Announcements: It’s time to consider purchasing or mounting your snow tires. Please support Tire Rack here as our preferred provider for multiple brands and direct shipping here. 

Ikon Pass rates go up on October 11th!  You can purchase your pass here.

Our Concierge program rates go up this Friday. If you want to support Powderchasers please join our custom forecasting service here (Concierge) or make a donation here.

Enjoy the powder/foliage this week! You can follow my travel on Instagram @powderchasersteve 

Powderchaser Steve 

We here at Unofficial Networks have been stoked to see all the early snowfall in the upper elevations in the Western United States, but we’re definitely ready to see the snow start to stick in the lower elevations.

This week, YouTuber meteorologist Ryan Hall, Y’all broke down when areas of the country typically see their first snowfall. Ryan pointed out how El Nino will change this, with some seeing snowfall later than usual, while others seeing early snowfall. Regions predicted for snowfall later than usual include the Midwest and Northeast. Compared to the map pictured below, which shows the average dates, El Nino will move these first snow dates for some mountainous areas. With El Nino, we could see snowfall a week or two sooner in the west and later on in the Midwest and East.

Obviously, we’ve already seen places throughout the West get their first snowfall, but it’s going to be interesting to see when the first snowfall in the Northeast happens.

Ryan’s video breakdown is below.

Image/Video Credits: Ryan Hall Y’all

After a snowy week in the Canadian Rockies, the US is about to see another round of snowfall. Months away from a historic winter, California will see its first snowfall of this fall. In addition, multiple spots in the Central Rockies will see measurable snowfall.

The latest forecast from Powderchasers is below.

First Snow For California- Lots Of Moisture For The Central Rockies

Fall is in full bloom in many areas of the Rockies this week. Reports from Aspen are “it is changing fast” from Mike Faas. Here in Utah where I am located the reds are at peak with the yellows quickly coming out. 

Below: Powderchaser Steve riding Emigration Canyon near Park City on Thursday evening.  @powderchasersteve via Instagram.

The pattern over the next several days will bring a cold front from Canada into the Intermountain West beginning Friday. The Alberta mountains and perhaps SE corner of BC will fare the best with snowfall falling at upper elevations through Saturday morning. Banff Sunshine with the higher elevations might grab some moderate freshies with rain noted at lower elevation resorts. 

Below: The Alberta peaks of Canada are favored with this cold front but only at upper elevations. Cold air will drop south towards the Sierra Friday night. 

Colder temps will plunge south over the Sierra Friday night into Saturday. The current models show an emphasis on southern regions south of the Lake towards Mammoth or perhaps even further east (Nevada line). Areas north, towards Lake Tahoe will see a few inches at upper elevations, while areas south could see higher amounts (4-8 at the peaks or over 8500 feet). If it were mid-winter would be aiming for southern areas of the Sierra. The models are not in agreement with a slight downward trend in totals. Mid or lower elevations will likely see rain. 

Below: Snowfall totals favoring areas well south of the lake (Mammoth or perhaps even further south or east). Hey, it’s a bit of stoke for the upcoming winter! Actual moisture will be healthy and well-needed. 

Below Saturday morning temps in the Sierra bring snow levels down to 7500 to 8,000 feet (Map- -3C at 10K or 26F). Moisture will be isolated up north with perhaps higher totals further south towards Mammoth or even further east. The highest totals will be above 9,000 feet. 

The bulk of moisture, which will be heavy at times, is aimed at central Nevada (Maybe the Ruby’s get lucky), and the northern Wasatch. Some decent totals are also noted in southern Idaho. Temps will keep snow levels around 9-10K in Utah, initially (Upper peaks of the Cottonwoods) before lowering Sunday night into Monday. The coldest air will reach Utah late Sunday. Your best chances of seeing lower-elevation flakes will be Monday morning in the Cottonwoods. 

Below: The University of Utah model based on the GFS only shows peak snowfall for Alta from late Sunday to Monday (3-5) as the cold front approaches. Winds will shift from gusty S, SW to NW so it’s possible orographic pump out higher amounts than this model is eluding to Monday morning as some snow continues. The summit of Snowbird, Solitude, Brighton, and Alta might end up grabbing deeper totals. 

Below: Very healthy moisture totals through Sunday are noted for extreme northern CA, Southern Sierra, central Nevada, and the northern Wasatch. The action fades a bit as you head east into Colorado, however, a secondary low will keep rain and some snow showers near the Front Range in the extended. 

Below: Monday morning will see the coldest temps reaching 28 degrees at 10K feet driving snow down to 8,000 feet (Bases of the Cottonwoods). Most of the accumulation will be found at upper elevations. NW flow over northern Utah might keep snow showers going on Monday with an upside? 

Below:  Overall snowfall for the west highlighting Alberta Canada (Upper peaks), extreme northern Montana, Southern Sierra, Northern Utah, and perhaps the San Juan Range in Colorado.  Moisture is fizzling as it reaches Colorado, however decent rain totals are noted in southern areas including Northern New Mexico. Temps are borderline for much snow aside from peaks near 10K (Light snow). 

Extended:

In the extended outlook, a secondary low forms over southern Colorado and slowly moves north and east on Tuesday/Wednesday. It’s possible that the Front Range of Colorado including the core of the I-70 corridor grab some teasers, colder temps and light snow during this period  

High pressure takes hold beyond Wednesday next week before a stronger low-pressure system enters the west around October 10th. 

Below: Low pressure is returning to the west near the October 10/11 timeframe. This might be a decent moisture event. 

Please support our forecasts with a donation here or join our Concierge program for custom chases, forecasts, and direct contact with our weather staff. That program is going to see a price increase this season so if you sign up now, you get the old rates. 

Please welcome our newest silver sponsor Skis.Com – a family-run business now based in the northeast. For more than 50 years they have provided their customers with the best selection of skis, snowboards, clothing, and accessories which can be found at snowboards.com and skis.com.

You can follow my photography, and outdoor adventure on Instagram @powderchasersteve. Check out my latest collections of Alaska Brown Bears!

We will see you on the slopes soon!

Powderchaser Steve  

The biggest weather question many people have been asking these past few weeks is probably centered around what October/fall will wind up looking like. Will we actually get a few weeks of that nice sweater weather? Or will it just immediately drop into frigid temperatures, forcing us straight into winter coats and gloves? Will we have early October snowfall, or will we be waiting until November? These are the hard hitting questions that we must ask ourselves.

Fortunately we have YouTuber Direct Weather, who looks over and explains every possibility when it comes to the weather reports.

“Direct Weather, an unfiltered weather source where we go over every possibility, so you never get caught off guard.“

I’ve been watching Direct Weather pretty much since I started working here at Unofficial Networks. Now I can’t say that I understand everything when it comes to weather reports, and I can’t say that I’m anything close to a meteorologist, but Direct Weather has given me a lot more weather knowledge than I’ve had in the past. It’s definitely worth giving their channel a follow if you haven’t already.

Also, important to remember that this report is pretty far out. It could, and probably will to some extent, change. For official weather reports to base your life around, make sure to check out and listen to the National Weather Service.

Related: 2023 Fall Weather Forecast: Significant EARLY SNOW in the US?

Image Credit: Direct Weather via YouTube

You’ve probably already seen plenty of winter snowfall forecasts this September. They come out like crazy this month, with everyone who knows a thing or two about the different weather patterns tossing their predictions into the ring. Obviously it’s too early to tell for certain. There will never be a way to 100% accurately predict the weather months in advance. It is possible to look at trends, though, and that’s what we like to do when fall rolls around.

Everyone’s favorite Colorado based shredding meteorologist Chris Tomer has just thrown his prediction out into the world, providing us with an insight into what could be an epic (or disappointing, depending on where you live) winter. So what does El Niño mean for this upcoming winter? What is a Modoki contribution, and where the heck should I book my ski trip this winter? I’ll let Chris explain all that.

“My opinion on winter snowfall at ski areas, overall jet pattern, Modoki contribution, and unknowns.“

Things are looking good for California and Colorado! Now, it’s important to keep in mind that above average does not mean above last season’s snow totals. Those were absolutely out of this world. So while Tahoe and Mammoth might have an above average season, I wouldn’t put my cash on Mammoth saying open into August. But who knows!?

Things are looking hopeful for our New England friends after an interesting season last year. Northwest friends, I’m sorry. Seems like luck isn’t on your side this time around. But, once again, who knows?! If anyone would, it would be Chris, but it’s way to early to say for certain.

As always, make sure to give Tomer’s channel a follow. You’ll see us talking about his weather reports a lot more once winter fully rolls around. He posts winter weather forecasts heading into most weeks and major storms, so keep an eye out!

Related: Direct Weather Issues Snowfall Forecast Winter 2023/2024

Image Credit: Chris Tomer via YouTube

As the weather starts to become colder and images of snow at the highest peaks start filling our screens, many Colorado skiers start desperately trying to figure out exactly what this upcoming ski season will look like.

Obviously it’s impossible to truly predict how much snow we’ll be getting in March when it’s only September. We might prep for a devastatingly dry year only to have it dump the whole season, or we might prepare for an epic year just to see a few small storms throughout the cold months. There is no way of knowing for certain.

But we can look at data and trends from previous seasons. What has high precipitation in the summer meant for snow in the winter? How has a shorter period of over 90 degree days affected how cold it tends to get in the winter? How do specific patterns, like El Niño and La Niña, tend to affect our ski season? Those questions can’t give us everything, but they can give us a bit.

This year, after three consecutive La Niña years, the world is headed into an El Niño winter. For many areas of the country, this means warmer temperatures, more rain, and less of the good stuff (deep pow pow). For others, that means plenty of snow. Unfortunately, for the mountains of Colorado, it could mean literally anything. But what does it mean for Denver? 9NEWS Meteorologist Cory Reppenhagen has the answer:

So there you go! It could mean quite literally anything for the mountains. Sorry to disappoint. Those living in Denver can expect plenty of snow, though! Great, right?

This gives me mixed emotions. On the one hand, snow rules, and if large amounts of Denver snow means large amounts of mountain snow, sweet! But that’s not what it means. If anything, I fear that this just means worse commutes for less of a reward, but we’ll just have to wait and see!

Featured Image Credit: Breckenridge Ski Resort via Facebook